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Thursday, May 03, 2012

CIA report predicting that Israel won't survive, 1947

Israel Matzav found a neat CIA document that discusses what they think would happen if the UN votes to allow partition of Palestine in 1947. It was written on the eve of the UN vote.

The experts get a lot wrong; for example the report says that it is unlikely that Arab nations would attack the Jewish state directly in opposition to the UN. Yeah.

Here are its conclusions, which were not rosy for the future of Israel.

CONCLUSIONS.
If the UNGA accepts partition as the best solution of the Palestine problem, it is almost certain that armed hostilities will result in Palestine; that the social, economic, and political stability of the Arab world will be seriously disturbed; and that US commercial and strategic interests in the Near East will be dangerously jeopardized. Although the UNGA Ad Hoc Committee on Palestine is now considering establishing a Commission responsible to the Security Council to oversee the implementation of partition, it is unlikely that any sizable international police force will initially be available to the Commission. It is highly probable, therefore, that Jewish and Arab forces will clash over the attempt of the Jews to establish a Jewish state.

Into this struggle between the Jews and Arabs of Palestine, the people of the Arab states will inevitably be drawn. Although most of the Arab governments will be reluctant to act in opposition to a UNGA decision and against the wishes of the major powers, nationalist, religious, and tribal pressures will compel them to support unofficially the Palestine Arabs. Inevitably the extremists, the chauvinists, will increase their influence at the expense of those statesmen in the Arab world who believe that the development of their countries depends on the maintenance of close ties with the US and the UK. While irresponsible tribesmen and fanatic Moslems are haphazardly blowing up parts of the pipelines and attacking occasional Americans, it is possible that the responsible governments will refuse to sign pipeline conventions, oil concessions, civil air agreements, and trade pacts The various projects which are necessary to raise the standard of living cannot be carried through without US assistance and guidance. With the US committed to partition, such developments will be shelved indefinitely. The poverty, unrest, and hopelessness upon which Communist propaganda thrives will increase throughout the Arab world, and Soviet agents (already being smuggled into Palestine as Jewish DP’s) will scatter into the other Arab states and there attempt to organize so-called “democratic movements” such as the one existing today in Greece.

In the meantime, the war in Palestine, barring international armed intervention, will increase in intensity. The Jewish forces will initially have the advantage. However, as the Arabs gradually coordinate their war effort, the Jews will be forced to withdraw from isolated positions, and having been drawn into a war of attrition, will gradually be defeated. Unless they are able to obtain significant outside aid in terms of manpower and material, the Jews will be able to hold out no longer than two years.

The UN, having recommended partition, would have to consider the serious threat to the peace resulting from the recommendation. It would, in effect, be compelled to take steps to enforce partition, with the major powers acting as the instruments of enforcement. The dangerous potentialities of such a development to US-Arab and US-USSR relations need no emphasis.
They weren't the last to predict Israel's destruction. Somehow, Israel survived despite all the expert opinions.

Here is the entire report.
CIA Report on Partition of Palestine

(h/t Norman)